For the First Time Since 2024, Your Social Security Raise May Actually Beat Medicare's Premium Increase.

Since 2024, Medicare Part B premiums have risen faster than Social Security cost-of-living adjustments every year - quietly eroding what retirees receive in their monthly checks. In 2026, that gap was stark: Social Security raised benefits by 2.8 percent while Part B jumped from $185 to $202.90 per month, a 9.7 percent increase.

In 2027, the numbers appear to be reversing. The Part B premium is projected to rise to approximately $209.50 - an increase of $6.60, or about 3.25 percent. The Social Security COLA forecast sits at 3.7 to 3.8 percent. If those projections hold, it would be the first year since 2024 that the SS raise outpaces the Part B increase.

Why the Gap Has Mattered

The math of the gap is direct. Medicare Part B premiums are deducted automatically from Social Security benefits for the roughly 50 million Americans enrolled in both programs. In years where Part B rises faster than the COLA, the net check - what actually arrives in the bank - grows less than the nominal raise suggests. In 2026, a beneficiary receiving the average monthly benefit of $2,082.76 saw their 2.8 percent raise add roughly $58. But Part B jumped nearly $18. The net increase after the premium deduction was closer to $40.

The average Part B increase over the past decade has been 5.4 percent per year, consistently above COLA rates. A year where Part B rises 3.25 percent against a 3.8 percent COLA would represent a meaningful break from that pattern.

What the 2027 Numbers Mean in Dollars

The 3.8 percent COLA forecast would add roughly $79 per month to the average SS retirement benefit - based on the $2,082.76 average as of May 2026. The projected Part B increase of $6.60 would reduce that by $6.60. Net gain for dual SS-Medicare enrollees at the average benefit level: approximately $72 per month.

That is not a guarantee. The COLA is not finalized until October, after July, August, and September CPI-W readings are complete. The Part B premium is not officially announced until November. Both numbers can still move.

The Sourcing Behind the Projections

The 3.8 percent COLA forecast comes from the Senior Citizens League, held steady in their July 14 update. Independent analyst Mary Johnson reduced her forecast to 3.7 percent in July after June inflation data came in cooler than expected. The Part B projection of $209.50 comes from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, published in June 2026. The Trustees Report figure is a projection, not a final number.

References: Social Security COLA in 2027: Cooling Inflation Lowers Estimate | Social Security’s 2027 COLA Forecast Was Just Updated | Medicare 2027 Projections: Higher Premiums Are Coming, but There’s Good News